The thirst is real around the NFL. Chicago and Carolina finally ended their waits last season. Other franchises have not been so fortunate. Four years have passed since Arizona, Las Vegas and Tennessee last reached the postseason. Indianapolis and New Orleans have gone five seasons without January football. Atlanta has waited nearly a decade. No team has suffered longer than the Jets, now 15 years removed from their last playoff appearance.
Hope still exists. Buffalo turned a 17-year drought into a sustained run of contention. The question now is which of these seven clubs stands the best chance of joining that list when the 2026 campaign opens. Here is our ranking, from longest odds to shortest.
| Rank | Team | Last Playoff Season | Strength of Schedule | Core Storyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Arizona Cardinals | 2021 | .538 | Rebuild in brutal division |
| 6 | Las Vegas Raiders | 2021 | .529 | QB transition + tough West |
| 5 | Tennessee Titans | 2021 | .476 | New coaching, young core |
| 4 | New York Jets | 2010 | .517 | Glenn era Year 2 |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts | 2020 | .465 | Daniel Jones health + division window |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 2017 | .465 | Easiest schedule, new staff |
| 1 | New Orleans Saints | 2020 | .434 | Late momentum + continuity |
Rank 7: Arizona Cardinals
Last playoff season: 2021
Walk through State Farm Stadium on a fall Sunday and the vibe still carries the residue of that 3-14 finish. The Cardinals moved on from Kyler Murray in the offseason. They brought in rookie head coach Mike LaFleur and selected running back Jeremiyah Love third overall. None of it changes the immediate math.
Arizona sits at the bottom of the NFC West behind the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the Los Angeles Rams after adding Myles Garrett, and a San Francisco team that rarely misses the postseason. Their .538 strength of schedule ranks among the league’s highest. Six of the first nine games come on the road. The Week 14 bye arrives after most contenders have already separated themselves. By the time December rolls around, the Cardinals may already be playing for draft position rather than a wild-card spot.
Rank 6: Las Vegas Raiders
Last playoff season: 2021
The Raiders share the same division problem. Denver and Los Angeles made the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. Kansas City remains dangerous whenever Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are healthy. Las Vegas added Kirk Cousins to bridge the gap for No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza and hired Super Bowl-winning coach Klint Kubiak. Maxx Crosby remains the anchor on defense.
Those moves matter. The .529 strength of schedule still looms large. The franchise has reached the postseason just twice in the 23 years since its last Super Bowl appearance, and neither run lasted more than one game. This group looks more organized than recent versions, yet the path out of the AFC West remains narrow in Year 1 of the new regime.
Rank 5: Tennessee Titans
Last playoff season: 2021
Nashville brought in former Jets head coach Robert Saleh and former Giants head coach Brian Daboll to lead the staff. They added edge rusher Jermaine Johnson II and wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson in free agency, then drafted wide receiver Carnell Tate fourth overall to pair with 2025 No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward. The Titans finally have a clear offensive identity and enough young talent to dream.
Their .476 strength of schedule ranks 25th in the league, which helps. The AFC South is winnable if Jacksonville and Houston take steps backward. Still, installing new schemes and developing a second-year quarterback while competing against more experienced division rivals rarely produces instant results. The Titans could surprise, but breaking through in the first season together will require everything to align quickly.
Rank 4: New York Jets
Last playoff season: 2010
Fifteen years without a playoff game leaves scars. Fans who were teenagers in 2010 now have families of their own. The second year of the Aaron Glenn era offers the clearest opening in a long time. Geno Smith brings steady veteran leadership. Demario Davis and Minkah Fitzpatrick upgrade the defense. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall remain legitimate difference-makers on offense.
The .517 strength of schedule reflects the brutal AFC East reality: the defending champion Patriots and perennial contender Bills set a high bar. How the rest of the conference’s middle class performs after its own coaching changes will determine whether the Jets have enough runway. The streak feels breakable for the first time in years, yet it still requires a few breaks to actually snap.
Rank 3: Indianapolis Colts
Last playoff season: 2020
The Colts have lived in the 8-9 to 9-8 range for what feels like forever, regardless of who lines up under center. Daniel Jones returns from injury as the newly extended starter. Shane Steichen’s offense has shown flashes, but the second-half collapse last season (seven straight losses after an 8-2 start) still lingers in the rearview mirror.
The .465 strength of schedule ranks among the league’s easier marks. A lighter back half of the schedule gives Indianapolis a chance to build momentum when it matters most. The AFC South remains winnable. The question is whether this group can finally stay healthy and consistent enough to finish the job it has started multiple times under Steichen.
Rank 2: Atlanta Falcons
Last playoff season: 2017
Eight straight losing seasons have tested even the most loyal Atlanta fans. The 2026 schedule offers genuine hope. The Falcons possess the NFL’s easiest slate according to multiple projections, with their toughest matchups clustered early at home against Baltimore, Chicago and San Francisco. Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts give whichever quarterback starts (Michael Penix Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa) legitimate weapons.
The .465 strength of schedule matches Indianapolis. The NFC South has no dominant favorite after Carolina claimed the division last season with an 8-9 record. The one complication is the new coaching staff. Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees arrive from Cleveland with fresh schemes and new terminology. That transition creates some uncertainty in a division that otherwise looks wide open.
Rank 1: New Orleans Saints
Last playoff season: 2020
The Saints finished last season with real momentum, winning four of their final five games after a 2-10 start. That stretch matters more than the overall record. In the second year of the Kellen Moore-Tyler Shough partnership, New Orleans enters 2026 believing a playoff berth is realistic rather than aspirational.
The Saints own the NFL’s second-most favorable strength of schedule at .434. They close the season with four of their final five games against NFC South opponents, three on the road. Travis Etienne and Jordyn Tyson should be fully integrated with Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave by December. The staff returns intact, which gives New Orleans a continuity edge over Atlanta. The late-season surge from 2025 provides something the Falcons lack right now: proof that this group can finish strong when the lights are brightest.
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